Getting Useful Answers Out of This
A calculator is only as good as its inputs, and forestry models fail in predictable ways. Four things worth doing:
- Get real quotes for establishment. Clearing is the most variable cost in Ugandan forestry by a wide margin — open grassland is a fraction of the cost of dense bush or stumped ground. Do not guess this one.
- Ask actual buyers what they pay. Not what you have heard. Two or three buyers, asked what length and top diameter they specify and what each grade earns. See tree buyers in Uganda.
- Run the pessimistic case. Set survival to 70%, price to two-thirds, and rotation two years longer. If the project still works, it is robust. If it collapses, you have learned something important for free.
- Do not include land you already own at market value. It will make almost any forestry project look poor, because you are charging the crop for an asset you still hold at the end.
What This Model Deliberately Leaves Out
| Not included | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Coppice rotations | Eucalyptus gives two or three rotations from one planting. Rotations 2 and 3 skip establishment entirely, so their returns are much better. Model them separately with establishment set to zero. |
| Thinning revenue and cost | Pine and teak require thinning. Early thinnings often cost more than they earn; later ones sell. See pine thinning. |
| Land appreciation | Over a seven-to-twenty year rotation in Uganda this is frequently a material part of total return. |
| Inflation and discounting | Shillings in year seven are not shillings today. The annualised figure here is deliberately simple. |
| Intercropping income | Taungya offsets early costs meaningfully — see agroforestry. |
| Risk | Fire, disease, theft, tenure dispute. Not a line item — but the reason to run the pessimistic case. |
| Carbon revenue | Rarely material for a small plantation. See carbon eligibility. |
Starting Points by Species
Rough shape, to get you into the right area before you replace everything with real quotes:
| Species & product | Spacing | Years | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eucalyptus — building poles | 2.5m × 2.5m | 5–8 | The mainstream Ugandan case. Coppices. |
| Eucalyptus — firewood / charcoal | 2m × 2m | 3–5 | Sold by volume and weight; form irrelevant |
| Eucalyptus — transmission poles | 2.5m × 3m | 8–12 | Higher value per stem, tighter specification |
| Pine — sawlogs | 3m × 3m | 15–20 | Add thinning costs. Does not coppice. |
| Musizi — timber | 3m × 3m | 15–20 | Wants good ground. Does not coppice. |
| Teak — sawlogs | 3m × 3m | 20–25+ | North / West Nile. Pruning is decisive. |
Species detail: eucalyptus, pine, musizi, teak. New to this entirely? Start with how to start a tree farm in Uganda.
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate is this calculator?
It is exactly as accurate as the numbers you put into it. The arithmetic is correct; the assumptions are yours.
We deliberately do not pre-fill real prices, because Ugandan timber and establishment costs vary enormously by district, season, land condition and buyer. The defaults are round placeholder figures to show you the shape of the model — replace every one of them with your own quotes before drawing a conclusion.
What survival rate should I assume?
On a suitable site, with good stock, planted into established rains and beaten up promptly, 95% at twelve months is a realistic target.
If you are modelling a site that is marginal, or where you cannot commit to first-year weeding, model 70–80% and see what it does to the return. That sensitivity test is one of the most useful things this calculator does.
How many poles should I expect per tree?
It depends entirely on rotation length and the grade you are selling into. A single utility pole per stem is a common assumption for a first eucalyptus rotation; growers cutting shorter building poles may get more than one length from a stem.
Ask two or three actual buyers what they specify and what they pay before you fill this field in. Almost no first-time grower does, and it is the single most useful afternoon in the whole project.
Does the calculator account for coppice rotations?
Not automatically — it models one rotation, which is the conservative view. Eucalyptus coppices, typically giving two or three rotations from a single planting.
Because rotations two and three skip establishment costs entirely, their economics are materially better than the first. To model them, run the calculator again with establishment cost set to zero and only management costs included.
Why does the annualised return look low compared to other investments?
Because forestry ties up capital for years and this figure is deliberately simple — it divides total return across the rotation without discounting or accounting for when cash actually moves.
It also ignores inflation and land appreciation. In Uganda, land value growth over a seven-to-twenty year rotation is often a material part of the total return and is not captured here.
Should I include the cost of the land?
Only if you are buying it for this purpose. If you already own the land, including its market value will make almost any forestry project look poor, because you are charging the crop for an asset you keep at the end.
The more useful question for existing landowners is what else that land could earn. If the answer is nothing, forestry is competing against zero.