Why the order number is bigger than the grid number
Three adjustments sit between "trees that fit on the land" and "seedlings to buy", and skipping any of them costs money in a different direction.
- Firebreaks, roads and boundary setbacks take ground out of production. Five percent on a tidy square block with an existing access track; ten to fifteen on an awkward shape, a steep site, or anywhere fire risk is real. This reduces the number you plant.
- Beating up — replacing seedlings that die in the first season — needs stock you already own, because the nursery batch you bought from will be gone and a different clone or provenance will not grow evenly with the rest. Five percent is normal for good stock planted into a proper rain; ten if you are planting late, on a dry site, or with stock you have not used before. This increases the number you order.
- Nursery losses in transit on rough roads. Not modelled here because it depends entirely on your transport, but count the plants off the truck, not off the invoice.
What a hectare and an acre hold, before deductions
| Spacing | Trees / hectare | Trees / acre | Typical use |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2m × 2m | 2,500 | 1,012 | Firewood, charcoal, very short rotations |
| 2.5m × 2.5m | 1,600 | 647 | Poles — the commonest commercial spacing |
| 3m × 3m | 1,111 | 450 | Larger poles, pine, sawlogs |
| 3m × 2m | 1,667 | 674 | Rows wide enough to drive between |
| 4m × 4m | 625 | 253 | Sawlogs, agroforestry, intercropping |
| 10ft × 10ft | 1,076 | 436 | Imperial standard |
Multiply the area per tree by 0.866 for a triangular layout — it fits about 15% more stems into the same ground at the same distance between neighbours.
The four costs beginners leave out
- Year two and year three weeding. The single most common budget failure. Year one weeding gets funded because it is visible; years two and three get skipped, and the trees that survive are the ones that lost two years of growth to grass competition. Budget six rounds across three years and treat that as the floor.
- Beating up labour, not just the replacement seedlings — someone has to walk the block and plant them.
- Fire protection. Maintaining a firebreak is an annual cost, not a one-off clearing cost.
- Supervision. Planting done by casual labour without someone checking pit depth, root collar level and spacing produces a block that looks planted and performs like half a block.
Where the default rates come from
The figures the calculator opens with are Ugandan indicative rates in shillings, useful as a shape rather than a quote. Replace every one of them with a local quotation before you rely on the total. Clearing in particular varies by an order of magnitude between clean fallow and heavy bush or stumped ground, and labour rates move with the season — everyone wants to plant in the same six weeks.
If you are working in Uganda, the line-item detail is in what an acre of eucalyptus actually costs and current stock prices are in tree seedling prices. Elsewhere in Africa, the country guides cover what grows where before you get to what it costs.
What this cannot tell you
It is an establishment budget, not an investment case. It stops at year three and says nothing about thinning, pruning, protection over a full rotation, land cost or land rent, harvesting, or what the timber will be worth when it is ready. For the return side, use the plantation yield calculator and plantation economics.
It also assumes you can actually plant the whole area in one season. On most smallholdings that is true. On larger blocks, phasing over two or three seasons changes the cash-flow shape completely — and usually for the better.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many seedlings do I need per acre?
About 647 at 2.5m x 2.5m spacing, 450 at 3m x 3m, and 1,012 at 2m x 2m - before deductions. Take off 5 to 15 percent for firebreaks, roads and boundary setbacks, then add about 5 percent as replacement stock for beating up. At 2.5m spacing on one acre with a 10 percent deduction, that is 582 planted and 612 ordered.
What percentage should I add for beating up?
Five percent is normal for good-quality stock planted into a reliable rain on a prepared site. Go to ten percent if you are planting late in the season, on a dry or shallow site, or using stock from a nursery you have not bought from before. Buy the replacements with the main order - going back to the nursery months later usually means a different batch that will not grow evenly with the rest.
What is the biggest cost in establishing a plantation?
Weeding, on almost every site, once you count all three years. Seedlings are usually the smallest line. Land clearing is the largest single day-one cost on bushed ground, but six rounds of weeding across three years will normally exceed it. Budgets that fail, fail at year two weeding.
Why is clearing costed on the full area but weeding on the net area?
Because firebreaks, roads and setbacks still have to be cleared - that is what makes them firebreaks and roads - but nothing is planted on them, so they are not weeded. The calculator applies each rate to the area that actually incurs it. Firebreak maintenance is a separate annual cost, and is not included here.
Does this work outside Uganda?
Yes. Every rate is an input, and the currency box is just a label - nothing is converted and no exchange rate is assumed. Enter your own local costs in your own currency and the structure holds anywhere. The default figures are Ugandan shillings, shown as a starting shape rather than a quote.
Should I plant at closer spacing to get more trees?
Only if the market you are selling into wants smaller stems. Closer spacing gives more stems but each one is thinner, and it brings competition forward, so growth slows earlier. For poles, 2.5m x 2.5m is standard because it closes canopy fast and produces straight stems at pole diameter. For sawlogs you want fewer, bigger trees, so 3m x 3m or wider.